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《大行》瑞銀降美團(03690.HK)目標價至172元 料今年斥250億人幣投資外賣業務
瑞銀發表報告,預計美團(03690.HK)2025年為捍衛核心業務,將在食品外賣業務上投資250億元人民幣(下同),相比之下,京東(09618.HK)預計投資350億元,阿里(09988.HK)則達500億元。據專家預測,在補貼帶動下,美團外賣的訂單量在第二季將加速至按年增長15%至16%(Mid-teens),第一季增長為9%。 上述預測假設美團食品外賣的營運利潤率在2025年下半年及2026年將分別降至1%及2.2%,此前為2.2%及2.7%。因此該行將美團2025至2027年的每股盈利預測下調6至21%,並預計2025年美團經調整淨利潤為300億元,低於市場共識的400億元。目標價從200港元下調至172港元。評級「買入」。 長期該行對美團成保持樂觀態度,因其具穩健的管理執行力,在閃購及海外Keeta業務的潛在增長空間亦增添吸引力。然而短期內,美團股價可能因其高達24倍的2025年市盈率估值,以及與電商巨頭競爭的不確定性而面臨壓力。
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