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《大行》美銀證券降阿里(09988.HK)目標價至132元 即時配送強勢投入將短期壓制電商利潤率
美銀證券發表報告,因高鑫零售(06808.HK)與銀泰出表影響,下調阿里巴巴(9988.HK)2026及2027財年總收入預測4%(部分被即時零售收入增長抵消)。集團調整後淨利潤預測分別調降18%及4%,至1,354億和1,734億元人民幣,中國電商貢獻調整後EBITA爲1,494億及1,887億元人民幣。基於模型調整,將目標價從141港元下調至132港元,阿里(BABA.US)美股目標價由145美元下調至135美元,但維持「買入」評級,考量因素包括:核心電商健康增長動能;AI長期成長主題;2027財年10倍調整後預測市盈率;以及即時零售市佔提升與消費刺激政策潛在催化劑。 美銀證券指出,自5月2日淘寶「即時購」上線以來,憑藉淘寶App龐大流量與高額用戶補貼,阿里巴巴食品/即時配送訂單量從每日不足3,000萬單強勁增長至6月23日的6,000萬單。據估算,該新業務6月季度虧損將超100億元人民幣(假設每單平均成本3元至4元人民幣)。7月2日公司宣佈未來12個月將追加500億元人民幣投入食品/即時配送領域,並啓動暑期大促,其中7月5日「超級折扣日」創下8,000萬單(含1,300萬即時零售訂單)及2億活躍消費者的新高紀錄。該行預期9月季度日均訂單將逼近7,000萬單,相關營銷支出將超200億元人民幣。預計2025年7月至11月將進入投資高峯期,重點建設用戶心智、升級供應鏈、優化算法系統及測試交叉銷售。
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