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《大行》大摩預測外賣戰結局 美團(03690.HK)仍將保持主導地位惟市場份額降
摩根士丹利發表報告,預測美團(03690.HK)核心本地商務業務第二季收入為670億元人民幣(下同),按年增長10%,營運利潤為80億元,按年下降48%。食品外賣和閃購營運利潤預計按年下降80億元。美團日均訂單量高峰已超1.2億單,領先阿里(09988.HK)的8,000萬單。 大摩預計美團第二季核心本地商務業務收入為750億人民幣,按年增長9%,營運利潤為34億,按年跌77%。全年核心本地商務收入預計達2,760億元,按年增長10%,營運利潤為300億元,按年下降43%。新業務虧損預計縮減至77億元。 大摩預測外賣戰結局,美團將保持主導地位,但市場份額可能從70%至75%,降至65%以上。即時電商市場總額預計到2030年超過2萬億元人民幣,但市場將由多個參與者分割。長期盈利預測下調,料食品外賣GTV利潤率由3%以上降至2.4%,單位經濟效益(UE)由1.5降至1.15;閃購GTV利潤率由2%降至1.5%。 該行下調美團2025年和2026年收入預測分別4%和8%,經調整EBITDA預測分別下調43%和27%。目標價由160港元下調至150港元,維持「增持」評級。偏好依次為阿里(BABA.US)>美團(03690.HK)>京東(JD.US)。
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