《大行》中金:內地互聯網進入新一輪擴張起點 騰訊及網易等較好地平衡長期投入與短期財務關係
中金發表內地互聯網今年下半年展望報告表示,內地互聯網行業歷經兩年多降本增效的收縮期,財務狀態普遍得以修復,2025年以來,該行觀察到行業明顯進入新一輪投資週期,AI、出海、即時零售等方向成為熱點。該行認為創新和冒險是鐫刻在互聯網基因中的元素,雖然該行看好大部分投入所帶來的增量,但站在二級市場投資角度,認為展望未來時,亦需留出足夠大的緩衝空間,平衡好短期與長期之間的節奏。
該行指,「古典互聯網」再次站上歷史舞台。2025年距餓了麼、美團(03690.HK)、滴滴等上一輪移動互聯網代表公司成立已十五年有餘,在移動互聯網發展初期,企業通常會把市場份額視為主要競爭力,把對手消耗在快速依靠資本提升規模的階段,至於投入產出長期是否成立,可以在主要競爭對手消失後再說。隨著國內互聯網早已完成各項服務從零到一的滲透,龍頭公司份額日趨穩固,這種「古典」打法日趨過時,行業所關注的核心指標,也從用戶數、交易額等先行指標,轉向核心利潤。究其原因,當市場趨於成熟時,沒有那麼多的增量空間;資本也趨向冷靜,沒有那麼多的資源去支持在存量上的同質化競爭。出乎意料的是,年初以來多家行業龍頭加入了以用戶數、單量、市場份額為目標的外賣和即時零售的競爭中,25 年盈利預測均面臨不同程度下調壓力。
回看2020年,有哪些教訓值得參考?2020年是互聯網的擴張之年,有嗶哩嗶哩(09626.HK)4億MAU的目標,社區團購吸引了美團、阿里(09988.HK)、拼多多(PDD.US)、京東(09618.HK)等百億元量級的投入,淘特在醞釀中,騰訊(00700.HK)OPEX也快速提升……其後疫情等因素,直接影響是收入的增速放緩,但投入的慣性卻無法停止,造成隨後行業的盈利大幅波動和估值更大程度的波動。今天,行業正積極投入AI浪潮、拓展全球化業務、佈局即時零售等方向。無論新方向擁有如何誘人的前景,在投資的選擇中,中金認為可能都需要就未來的不確定性留出餘量:倘若外部環境平穩,能否容忍所選擇標的因為大力投入而階段性財務低迷?倘若再有外部環境 的波動,能否容忍所選擇標的財務狀態受到更大幅度、更長週期的衝擊?
中金認為以騰訊、網易、騰訊音樂(01698.HK)、網易雲音樂(09899.HK)等為代表的公司,較好地平衡了長期投入與短期健康財務間的關係;該行對AI與出海的投入方向整體樂觀,適度投入及健康利潤是最理想的,若新方向收入增速足夠快,利潤略受影響也可接受;該行認為即時零售是行業的明確增量,但懷疑靠補貼所搶佔份額的持續性,高頻打低頻或許也僅僅是市場的願望。
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