《大行》匯豐研究:下半年內地互聯網行業聚焦遊戲與娛樂 審慎看待電商競爭 偏好騰訊、網易、阿里
匯豐研究發表報告指,上半年中國互聯網行業呈現出內容消費穩健增長、電商與外賣競爭加劇,以及人工智能AI前景謹慎但具長期潛力的特徵。隨着618購物節即將成爲外賣補貼戰的關鍵轉折點,投資者應聚焦盈利能見度高、受宏觀經濟影響較小的細分領域。
報告指,相較於商品與服務消費,遊戲與娛樂等內容消費在2025年上半年表現更爲穩健。優質內容的打造需要大量時間與資源投入,形成了較高的行業進入壁壘,爲龍頭企業如騰訊(00700.HK)和網易(09999.HK)提供了穩定的盈利基礎,成爲抵禦市場波動的防禦性屏障。
報告指,由於資本支出和雲收入增長低於預期,市場對AI行業的信心有所動搖。然而,隨着雲業務增長加速,以及AI技術逐步融入核心業務,市場信心有望逐步恢復。AI的長期增長潛力仍被看好,尤其是在雲服務與用戶指標改善的推動下。
報告提到,內地電商與外賣競爭加劇,618成關鍵。美團-W(03690.HK)預計,618將成爲評估補貼戰持續時間的關鍵節點,而激烈的市場競爭使得電商板塊的投資吸引力相對較低。
下半年投資策略方面,該行指在當前環境下,投資應聚焦盈利能見度高、受宏觀經濟影響較小的細分領域。線上遊戲因其穩定的需求和高進入壁壘成爲首選,其次爲娛樂板塊,而電商則因競爭激烈排名靠後。該行偏好騰訊、網易及阿里-W(09988.HK),全部評級爲「買入」。
該行指騰訊是線上遊戲領域的首選,預計公司將實現穩健的盈利增長,加上AI相關收入的增長,以及向高毛利業務的結構性轉型,將進一步推動其估值提升。同時亦看好網易,因其持續受惠於新遊戲推出、手機遊戲增長復甦。儘管電子商務競爭較激烈,該行亦仍看好阿里,因雲增長的潛在加速有利其人工智能估值升級。
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