二手車價格還會更高！俄烏戰爭打擊汽車行業！今明兩年全球汽車產量料減少超500萬輛
一家受到密切關注的汽車行業預測機構將今年和明年的全球汽車產量預測下調500多萬輛，這在很大程度上是由於俄烏戰爭可能帶來的影響。
來源 | 溫哥華數字財富
標普全球旗下汽車研究機構S&P Global Mobility週三(3月16日)將2022年和2023年全球輕型車產量預期各下調260萬輛，分別至8160萬輛和8850萬輛。
俄烏戰爭造成了物流和供應鏈問題，以及關鍵車輛零部件的短缺。值得注意的是，很多汽車製造商的線束都來自烏克蘭。這些問題進一步擾亂了因新冠疫情和半導體芯片持續短缺而本已緊張的供應鏈。
S&P Global Mobility執行主任Mark Fulthorpe在一份聲明中說，汽車產量下滑風險極爲巨大，在最糟情況下，這兩年的產量甚至可能會分別減少400萬輛。
標普表示，預計歐洲汽車生產受到的影響最大，將歐洲市場的產量預期下調170萬輛，其中俄羅斯和烏克蘭市場的需求將減少近100萬輛。其餘的削減是由於零部件短缺，包括芯片和線束短缺。
相比之下，標普將2022年北美輕型汽車產量預期下調48萬輛，將2023年產量預期下調54.9萬輛。
俄烏開戰導致能源和原物料價格飆升。俄羅斯是觸媒轉化器原料鈀金的供應大國，而烏克蘭是歐洲重要的車用線材供應來源，加上烏克蘭兩大氖氣應商停產，半導體制程恐受波及，都給汽車業帶來考驗。
除俄烏戰爭之外，我國新冠疫情再次升溫，讓深圳、長春等製造中心的工廠暫停。本週包括豐田、大衆和特斯拉都停工。
S&P Global Mobility稱，烏克蘭生產的線束中，約45%通常出口到德國和波蘭，這使德國汽車製造商面臨很大風險。自大約三週前俄烏戰爭爆發以來，大衆和寶馬等汽車製造商受到的影響最大。
大衆汽車本週警告稱，鑑於半導體短缺、供應鏈瓶頸、大宗商品價格高企以及俄烏衝突等因素，公司2022年的增長前景可能會受到影響。
大衆首席執行官(CEO)Herbert Diess透露，鑑於歐洲的形勢，大衆將把部分產能轉移到中國和美國，今年將優先考慮中國。
寶馬汽車週三以烏克蘭危機爲由，將汽車部門2022年息稅前利潤率(EBIT)預估從此前的8%-10%下調至7%-9%。該公司的工廠將在下週恢復正常生產。
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