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《大行》高盛料中資股有短線回調風險 料H股未來12個月潛在升3% 建議逢低吸納
高盛發表中國市場報告表示,這一波反彈的主因是市場對「再通脹」的預期,以及中國AI產業(特別是國產替代)加速發展的雙重催化。今年以來,A股及港股市場合計新增約3萬億美元市值;自6月底以來,滬深300及中證1000指數分別漲18%及23%。這輪牛市雖有流動性驅動估值的特質,但與全球其他市場類似,並非中國獨有。 市場關注升市能否持續及「慢牛」市況的可能性:該行指中國企業利潤正以中高單位數增長,盈利是市場續航力的基礎,而「流動性」則是所有牛市不可或缺的條件。A股現階段「慢牛」行情的結構條件,比起過往已有明顯改善。當前A股零售投資者情緒代理指標(已重新優化)爲1.3,顯示雖有市場盤整風險,但未達趨勢反轉水準。市場普遍認爲散戶爲主要動力,但數據顯示,中外機構投資者仍是這波行情的核心流動性來源。 中國家庭與機構的股票配置潛力方面,高盛指中國家庭潛在可投入股市的資金以數萬億美元計(目前約160萬億人民幣存款與330萬億人民幣房地產價值),但配置轉移會是漸進且長期的。中國機構若將股票配置比例由14%提升至新興市場平均(50%)或已開發市場(59%),則A股尚有約32萬億至40萬億人民幣的潛在買盤。 就市場估值是否過高,高盛認爲指數預測市盈率處於中等水平,顯示A股及H股仍有吸引力。該行引入新型工具監測股市政策風險。該行仍對A股及H股維持增持觀點,預計未來12個月分別有8%及3%上行空間,建議逢低逐步吸納,並看好AI、反內卷及股東回報等主題。 高盛指,不論H股還是A股在區域股市中都具備戰略性配置價值,傾向於逢低買入,近期急漲增加了獲利回吐或短線回調的風險,觸發因素可能包括市場情緒過熱導致本地監管壓、行業週期增長放緩跡象再現,以及美中貿易摩擦重燃,如第四季度地緣政治、政策日程頻繁疊加貿易壁壘的新聞消息。該行將視回調爲加碼或重新建倉的機會。該行對對結構性主題(民營龍頭企業、核心AI概念股、股東回報率高的企業)持倉滿意,並會考慮加碼政策受惠以及具備「抗內卷」優勢的個股。行業層面,該行重申超配科技及互聯網、消費服務、保險及原材料板塊,以獲得更佳風險回報。
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