《大行》大和:AI變現已開始為騰訊、阿里等領先企業帶來成果 挑選出5隻行業首選股
大和發表報告表示,中概互聯網指數ETF(KWEB.US)於8月中旬至9月中旬累漲11.9%,恆生科技指數同期累漲5.4%。根據該行對公司今年第二季業績,業績進一步堅定了該行對中國互聯網行業結構性增長的看法,AI變現已開始為騰訊(00700.HK)、阿里-W(09988.HK)、金山雲(03896.HK)等領先企業帶來成果。
該行認為阿里巴巴的即時零售業務已觸底;美團-W(03690.HK)的單位經濟仍受壓,中資互聯網行業於今年上半年顯示了AI商業化的初步成功、遊戲業務的穩健表現,以及外送行業的競爭格局變化,該行首選股包括阿里、騰訊、冬海集團(SE.US)、小米-W(01810.HK)、攜程(TCOM.US)。
中國遊戲市場方面,8月《王者榮耀》依然為中國市場收入最高的遊戲,月活躍用戶數(MAU)按月持平,而總流水按月增長6%。《和平精英》8月總流水按月增長30%。網易-S(09999.HK)經典IP《夢幻西遊》今年8月位列中國市場收入第九位。網易另一產品《蛋仔派對》在8月中國App Store手機遊戲收入榜中從7月的第九名滑落至第12名。
電商方面,中國8月線上零售銷售額達1.3萬億元人民幣,按年增長12.4%,增速較7月的13.5%有所放緩。實物商品線上零售銷售額8月按年增長7.1%(對比7月為8.3%及6月為4.7%)。
外賣及本地生活方面,國家統計局數據顯示,中國8月餐飲業收入按年增長2.1%(7月為1.1%,6月為0.9%)。外賣方面,該行觀察到規模本身並不能保證盈利,激烈競爭仍可能導致規模較大的美團等現有平台單位經濟惡化。阿里於今年第二季推出的即時零售業務顯示,若阿里能夠顯著縮小即時零售業務的虧損,同時維持或增加訂單市佔率,今年下半年執行力可能帶來驚喜。
大和指,阿里巴巴第二季即時零售業務,反映其執行能力若能在下半年及2026年明顯減少即時零售虧損,同時維持或擴大訂單市佔率,其表現或將優於預期,此可能帶動其估值進一步重估,因市場一直對阿里巴巴的執行能力存疑。早期指標(即時零售月活躍用戶約3億,每週日均訂單約8,000萬)及單位經濟改善速度快於預期(該行預計未來兩個月虧損將減少約50%),顯示其規模擴張正向更佳利潤率過渡,尤其是雲端及履約效率提升帶來支持。
在外賣領域,僅靠規模並不能保證盈利能力:激烈競爭仍可能導致大型平台(如美團)的單位經濟惡化。今年第二季美團虧損擴大,主要因努力確保騎手供應及捍衛市佔率,導致每張外賣訂單的經營利潤大幅下降;該行預計今年下半年外賣業務將持續錄得較高虧損,因公司需鞏固其市場地位。
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