《大行》匯研:可再生能源補貼結算有良好進展 予龍源(00916.HK)光大環境(00257.HK)協鑫科技(03800.HK)信義光能(00968.HK)「買入」評級
匯豐環球研究發表研報指,風能、太陽能及生物質公用事業的可再生能源(RE)補貼結算,長期以來由國家財政部(MoF)「可再生能源發展基金」逾期未付,但近期顯示取得進展。多家可再生能源公用事業公司宣布,已於7月至8月從政府收回應收賬款,當中包括中國光大綠色環保(01257.HK)於收取21億元人民幣;龍源電力(00916.HK)收取19億人民幣,2025年上半年為2.5億人民幣。
匯研表示,「可再生能源發展基金」基金自2010年代起一直處於預算赤字,因為補貼承諾(支出)隨著風能及太陽能擴張大幅上升,超過零售電價用戶相關附加費(收入)。財政部於2022年撥款超過3,000億人民幣作為一次性結算未付補貼,主要給予國有公用事業公司,並要求再投資可再生能源。
報告指出,多年來,可再生能源補貼結算一直延遲且不一致,無論強度或速度,認為這使市場預期保持低位。假設政府在2025年6月以來,風能及太陽能安裝量連續收縮後,更認真維持可再生能源投資,相信公用事業公司將從政府收到更多現金結算;並認為國家電網公司近期債券發行增加可能加速此過程。
匯研稱,在該行覆蓋股份中,龍源及光大環境(00257.HK)的補貼應收賬對股權價值佔比龐大,認為在潛在重評上有更大槓桿。在供應鏈方面,該行喜好協鑫科技(03800.HK)及信義光能(00968.HK),因上游太陽能設備產能過剩正在調整,任何對信義能源(03868.HK)的補貼結算都對信義光能帶來額外利好。
以下是匯豐對可再生能源公司的評級及目標價:
股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元)
龍源電力(00916.HK) | 買入 | 9元 → 8.8元
光大環境(00257.HK) | 買入 | 4.7元 → 5.7元
協鑫科技(03800.HK) | 買入 | 1.8元
信義光能(00968.HK) | 買入 | 4.4元
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