《大行》匯豐研究升中鋁(02600.HK)目標價至7.7元 料下半年盈利保持穩定
匯豐環球研究發表研報指出,中國鋁業(02600.HK)今年次季財報顯示盈利約35億元人民幣,按季度持平,按年下降26%,符合該行的預期,預計公司下半年盈利穩定,儘管2024年第四季度氧化鋁價格創歷史新高對盈利貢獻顯着。
匯豐研究認爲多項順風因素將支撐需求,包括4,500萬噸產量上限保持供應秩序,電網投資、電動車銷售及出口復甦將支持需求,以舊換新補貼繼續提供緩衝。但匯豐認爲下半年鋁價有上行風險,因庫存低且產能上限穩固。此外,大範圍的「反內卷」政策可能強化鋁產量上限,以助維持市場秩序。
匯豐環球研究維持對,中國鋁業「買入」評級,因公司具備穩固的鋁市場基本面、健康的利潤率及通過供應鏈整合提高的營運效率;並將中國鋁業(02600.HK)目標價從6.4港元升爲7.7港元,基於2018年以來平均8倍目標市盈率,中國鋁業(601600.SH)目標價從9.9元人民幣升至10.5元人民幣,分別意味約13%及33%的上行空間。
結合今年次季業績、最新鋁價趨勢、電力成本及需求展望,該行將中鋁2025至2027年盈利預測分別上調3%、19%、14%。
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