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《大行》高盛降美團-W(03690.HK)目標價至144元 競爭對利潤衝擊超出預期
高盛發表報告指出,美團(03690.HK)2025年第二季業績未達預期,收入按年增長12%,集團調整後淨利潤按年下降89%,相較高盛原先預估的升16%和跌54%。自5月起外賣業務競爭加劇,導致第二季外賣業務虧損超出預期(外賣利潤下降約100億元人民幣,相較高盛預估京東(09618.HK)及阿里巴巴(09988.HK)同期外賣業務絕對虧損分別超130億元人民幣及100億元人民幣。市場初步反應負面,可能因第二季業績未達預期及第三季虧損預期擴大,該行現估第三季外賣業務每單息稅前虧損超2元人民幣,較高盛先前預估的收支平衡為差。 該行現預測美團第三季核心本地商務收入增長持平(按年)及核心本地商務息稅前虧損為130億元人民幣。該行注意到,美團外賣訂單量增長動能在過去兩季(第二季至第三季)加速,但用戶配送補貼(計入抵銷收入)影響了總收入增長。與此同時,美團持續搶佔更高質量的外賣訂單(飲料訂單比例較同業低10個百分點),擁有更高效的騎手網絡,並維持外賣市場領導地位(特別是在交易總額(GTV)方面)。基於此,該行相信美團外賣長期每單營運利潤恢復至1元人民幣的路徑依然完好。 高盛認為,美團優選關閉及策略轉向Ella超市/閃購顯示公司堅定捍衛核心業務的決心。美團近年在捍衛規模領先地位及優越單位經濟效益方面展現強大執行力(利用低線城市規模優勢,適時交叉補貼高線城市競爭)。雖然2025年下半年外賣單位經濟效益可能先惡化後改善,且該行預期外賣競爭將導致長期市場格局更碎片化(美團長期訂單份額從75-80%降至50-55%),但該行認為其股價已反映長期市場份額及每單利潤下降(從1.5元人民幣降至1元人民幣)。該行對到店、酒店及旅遊+閃購+淨現金的估值(不計外賣或新業務)已達每股105港元(基於2026年預估)。該行認為其中央廚房計劃「Raccoon Kitchen」可能為長期單位經濟效益帶來上行空間,抵銷更碎片化的市場格局。在12個月展望中,該行預期市場將逐步認可美團即時零售的估值潛力(最終可能逐漸達到與外賣GTV同等規模,並具2%GTV利潤潛力),因美團作為快速即時配送平台擁有領先的用戶心智份額及最大規模。 高盛將美團2025財年至2027財年收入預測下調7%,並將2025財年調整後淨利潤/(虧損)從290億元人民幣下調至虧損140億元人民幣,2026財年至2027財年調整後淨利潤分別下調36%及22%,反映外賣業務利潤下調(因競爭持續時間延長一年而推遲)及行業格局可能從雙雄並立轉為三方競爭的估值重置。鑑於美團今年以來股價表現落後,該行維持對美團的「買入」評級,因認為其股價已反映長期市場份額及每單利潤下降的預期。將12個月目標價從159港元下調至144港元,對公司2026財年至2027財年的利潤恢復潛力保持樂觀,預期阿里巴巴及京東的高額補貼將於2026財年逐步正常化。該行對美團在整體本地服務的領導地位保持信心,包括外賣業務、仍快速增長的到店本地服務細分市場的穩定格局、快速即時購物零售增長動力、人工智能應用及Keeta帶來的新增長軌跡,以及穩健的資產負債表。
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