《大行》大摩:本地銀行業務動力負面 保留偏好匯控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)
摩根士丹利指,本港銀行股第二季業績被本港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)下跌及本港商業房地產信貸質素轉差主導,但由財富及市場收入增加抵銷盈利壓力。該行料下半年環境仍具挑戰性,HIBOR料只會在第四季復甦,信貸質素壓力持續。該行又指,市場收入第三季開局強勁,盈利展望仍繼續依賴該部。預測本地銀行動力負面,國際銀行則穩固。
該行認為本地銀行估值已見盡,尤其是恆生(00011.HK),中銀香港(02388.HK)的股息則更具支持力,但相對同業估值令該行維持對兩股「減持」評級。該行保留對匯控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)的偏好,估值不高,資本回報仍具支持力,結構性故事亦正面。
該行同時預計中銀香港在月底公布的業績中,息差仍然受壓,但非淨利息收入強勁。該行將觀察對信貸質素的評論有否改變,市場亦將檢視管理層對資本管理的評論。該行不預期中銀香港在中期業績公布股份回購,但管理層或評論年底會否有相關公布。派息比率亦將為重點。
摩根士丹利對銀行股投資評級及目標價:
股份│投資評級│目標價
中銀香港(02388.HK)│減持│24.7元->31.4元
恆生銀行(00011.HK)│減持│93元->94.5元
匯豐控股(00005.HK)│增持│107.1元
渣打(02888.HK)│增持│158.6元
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