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《大行》匯豐研究升Caterpillar(CAT.US)目標價至405美元 評級「持有」積壓訂單強勁已反映
阿思達克 08-12 11:22
匯豐環球研究指,重型機械股Caterpillar(CAT.US)自4月7日對等關稅暫緩後累升49%,跑贏同業的20%至40%升幅,標普500指數的26%升幅及標普500機械股指數的25%升幅。該行維持對該股「持有」評級,認爲積壓訂單強勁因素已反映,並憂慮關稅損害公司第三季至明年首季利潤率,但上調對該股目標價,由370美元上調至405美元。最牛及最熊情況下的合理估值應爲550及290美元,主要上行風險包括人工智能數據中心熱潮及美聯儲更大幅減息,主要下行風險爲更大關稅逆風及經濟放緩。 該行又指,公司第二季收入稍勝預期,但盈利遜預期,受超預期關稅影響拖累。公司預計第三季及第四季關稅影響爲4億至5億,以及6億至7億美元,對比第二季的估計3.5億美元。今年影響13億至15億美元。關稅令公司第二季經營利潤率減少1至2個百分點。 該行預期關稅逆風最少持續至明年首季,直至明年第二季受惠低基數,基於估計50%關稅影響與中國進口貨品有關,中美貿易談判仍然繼續,以及永久的紓緩計劃需時完成,譬如轉換供應鏈,且在過渡期間將影響交付及毛利率。該行下調對公司今明兩年經調整毛利率預測至17.4%及18.2%,爲公司指引下限,對比2023年及2024年的各逾20%。
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