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《大行》花旗上調京東(JD.US)盈測 重新給予「買入」評級目標價42美元
阿思達克 08-12 11:22
花旗發表研究報告,指京東-SW(09618.HK)(JD.US)將於本周四(14日)發布今年第二季財報。花旗鑑於最新監管警告,以及各平台促銷力度減弱,將京東集團2025至2027年非公認會計原則(Non-GAAP)淨利潤預估分別上調9.7%、30.7%及8.2%,有關預估仍低於市場共識預測12%、8%及17%。 花旗認為,若京東2025年第二季財報利潤表現優於預期,且對補貼減少及競爭格局發表積極評論,認為這將對同行帶來正面影響。在財報電話會議中,花旗預計管理層將提供以下更新:外賣訂單量里程碑、新用戶增長、交叉銷售效果、外賣業務滿意度或改進領域、電子產品及一般商品增長展望,以及資本配置和股東回報。 花旗預計,京東今年第二季總收入為3,360億元人民幣(按年增15.3%),市場最新共識為3,351億元(按年增15%)。花旗預估一般公認會計準則(GAAP)毛利率、履約毛利率及non-GAAP營運利潤率分別為15.3%、8.4%、0.6%,去年同期則為15.8%、9.9%、4%。 花旗預測京東次季non-GAAP淨利潤年減68%至46.8億元人民幣(利潤率1.39%),低於共識的54億元人民幣(利潤率1.62%);預計電子產品收入年增16.6%至1,690億元人民幣,一般商品年增15%至1,022億元人民幣,直銷業務年增16%至2,713億元人民幣。花旗又預期,京東財報將符合或略超該行、或市場共識預測,管理層對展望及競爭的語氣至關重要。 對於今年第三季展望,花旗預計總淨收入為2,881億元人民幣(年增10.7%),non-GAAP淨利潤為45.8億元人民幣(利潤率1.59%),相較共識的2,890億元人民幣(年增11%)及59億元人民幣(利潤率2.05%)。花旗續指出,京東自6月1日宣布2,500萬日訂單量後未發布新里程碑,認為正常化日訂單量可能維持在2,000萬左右。 花旗對京東暫停評級後,重新予其美股「買入」評級,目標價42美元,基於預測2026年non-GAAP市盈率12倍計。花旗認為,鑑於未來幾季競爭格局的不確定性,以及以舊換新計劃正常化後的增長驅動因素疑慮,市盈率折讓合理。 花旗續指出,看好京東的增長前景,因其持續交出穩健業績,認為京東管理層在經營線上零售業務方面有清晰願景和策略,強調產品品質和客戶服務;也看到中長期催化劑,如京東推出新業務(例如生鮮產品和旅遊套餐)及通過跨境業務和金融業務擴張,後者利用其專有數據和互聯網技術降低金融交易成本。
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