《大行》美銀證券料藥明康德(02359.HK)繼續搶佔市場份額 升目標價至123元
美銀證券研究報告指出,近期發布了一份報告,回顧今年上半年中國生物技術與製藥業的授權轉讓交易激增,中國企業的授權轉讓交易總額按年增135%至600億美元。由於恆瑞醫藥(01276.HK)在港交所(00388.HK)(HKXCY.US)公開上市,中國初級市場創新藥物融資總額年增42.9%至33.3億美元,融資事件數量略減6.7%(相較2024年年減22.3%)。美銀認為,國內融資環境改善及授權轉讓交易上升趨勢,可能逐步轉化為對國內醫藥外包(CXO)服務的更高需求。
美銀上調藥明康德(02359.HK)(603259.SH)長期收入預測,調整其2025至2032年每股盈餘複合年增長率至16.2%。將其港股目標價從115.7港元上調至123港元,A股目標價從107.6人民幣上調至114.4人民幣。鑑於其穩健的訂單增長及營運效率提升,重申「買入」評級。
美銀將藥明生物(02269.HK)2025至2027年收入預測上調2%,以反映2025年上半年初步業績及長期收入預測。目標價從29.6港元上調至35港元,但因其估值較高(2026年預估市盈率26.5倍,相較藥明康德H股18倍),維持「中性」評級。
鑑於需求展望改善,美銀也上調了昭衍新藥(06127.HK)(603127.SH)及方達控股(01521.HK)的長期收入預測。然而,美銀預期行業龍頭如藥明康德憑藉其整合平台及強大營運效率,將繼續搶佔市場份額。因此,在CXO子行業中,美銀偏好藥明康德,對昭衍新藥及方達控股維持「跑輸大市」評級,昭衍新藥港股目標價從9.3港元上調至11港元,A股目標價從8.5元人民幣上調至10.1人民幣,方達控股目標價從0.8港元上調至0.95港元。
以下是美銀對上述公司的評級及目標價:
股份|評級|目標價
藥明康德(02359.HK)|買入|115.7→123港元
藥明康德(603259.SH)|買入|107.6→114.4人民幣
—------------------------------------------------
藥明生物(02269.HK)|中性|29.6→35港元
—------------------------------------------------
凱萊英(06821.HK)|跑輸大市|59→70元人民幣
—-----------------------------------------------
昭衍新藥(06127.HK)|跑輸大市|9.3→11港元
昭衍新藥(603127.SH)|跑輸大市|8.5→10.1人民幣
—------------------------------------------------
方達控股(01521.HK)|跑輸大市|0.8→0.95港元
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