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《大行》匯豐研究升信義光能(00968.HK)目標價至4.4元 維持「買入」評級
匯豐環球研究報告指出,信義光能(00968.HK)今年上半年利潤錄得7.46億元人民幣(按年下降59%),因平均售價下調及資產減值,符合該行預估及早前盈利預警。正面消息是,行業自願減產持續進行,自5月起有效供應減少11%,庫存水平下降。該行認爲,在太陽能玻璃行業上,任何政府支持的反內卷措施仍是值得關注的催化劑,監於信義光能的成本優勢,其應繼續受惠於市場更快整合。信義光能估值具吸引力,2026年預測市盈率爲8.8倍,維持對其「買入」評級,目標價從4.2元上調至4.4元。 該行根據2025年上半年實際單位成本,將信義光能2025至2027年太陽能玻璃單位成本假設下調4%至5%,又假設信義光能2025至2027年資產減值分別爲6億元、2億元、2億元人民幣(原爲1億元、無、無)。該行表示,若信義光能決定出售多晶矽業務,預計將有持續資產減值。因此,該行將2025至2027年盈利預測上調27%至32%。監於平均售價下調導致盈利能力收窄,且需求不明朗,該行預計未來數季盈利仍將波動。 至於信義能源(03868.HK),匯豐環球研究表示,該公司2025年上半年利潤按年增長23%,受以下因素推動:1)新產能帶動發電量增加(按年增長18%),2)融資成本降低,3)一次性稅務退款。信義能源對國內太陽能電廠投資保持謹慎,但計劃向海外多元化發展。信義能源重申約50%的派息比率。估值合理,2025年預測市淨率爲0.7倍,隱含股息率約5%,監於增長可見度有限。匯豐維持信義能源「持有」評級,基於現金流折現的目標價維持1.3元。 匯豐研究根據2025年上半年實際融資成本,將信義能源2025至2027年融資成本假設下調30至50個基點。另又監於中國關稅政策變化,該行將信義能源2025至2027年盈利預測,分別調整至1%、跌4%、2%。
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