《大行》匯豐:恆隆地產(00101.HK)有望回歸常態 升目標價至9.2元
匯豐環球研究報告指出,恆隆地產(00101.HK)今年上半年業績如預期疲弱,但認為租戶銷售持續改善,預計下半年可恢復增長。匯豐又認為,恆隆新項目竣工應能增強經常性收入的韌性,支撐股息支付。匯豐維持恆隆地產「買入」評級,基於不變的55%每股資產淨值(NAV)折讓,目標價從8.8元升至9.2元。
匯豐認為恆隆地產穩中向好,上半年業績基本盈利按年下降9%至16億港元,中期股息維持不變,為每股0.12港元。令人鼓舞的是,與2024年下半年相比,恆隆在中國內地(按年跌2%)和香港(按年跌4%)的租金跌幅,在今年上半年均有所收窄;此外,內地商場租戶銷售持續復甦,今年第二季下降幅度按年跌幅收窄至1%。恆隆管理層認為下半年有很高機會恢復增長。加上即將竣工的西湖66號項目及「上海恆隆廣場」的擴建,應能增強恆隆在2026年的經常性收入韌性,支撐其股息派發。
匯豐表示,恆隆地產的十個主要商場中,有七個在上半年實現租金收入按年增長。關鍵正面因素包括:「港匯恆隆廣場」的租戶銷售增長恢復,以及「上海恆隆廣場」的租金韌性(約佔商場收入的59%)。但「武漢恆隆廣場」及「瀋陽市府恆隆廣場」等商場仍面臨挑戰,收入及租戶銷售均按年下降超過30%(約佔恆隆購物中心收入的4%)。
匯豐又指出,恆隆在香港的業務有所改善,但租金下行壓力可能持續,其購物中心繼續面臨消費需求疲弱的挑戰。匯豐預期,恆隆將優先考慮保留租戶以提高入住率。其租戶銷售在2025年上半年下降2%,表現優於整體市場。其住宅租賃業務表現良好,但不足以抵消影響。
匯豐將恆隆2025至2027年盈利預測上調2.6%至4.3%,主要由於租金假設上調及融資成本假設下調。匯豐又預測恆隆2025至2027年每股股息維持不變,為0.52港元,預期派息比率將隨著未來幾年新項目的落成而逐步上升。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.