Only two days remain before the Stablecoin Ordinance formally comes into force. On 29 July the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) released two final guidance papers, opening an “early dialogue” window until 31 August and accepting the first formal licence applications by 30 September. The regulator also reminded the market that no licences have been issued yet; the very first one is unlikely to arrive before early 2026.

Policy Recap: Compliance Lines and Timeline

Hong Kong’s stablecoin regime evolved from a 2022 policy statement and culminated in the Stablecoin Ordinance, which passed its third reading in May 2025. The framework combines licensing with dual oversight. Issuers must segregate themselves from reserve custodians, maintain a 1:1 fully-backed reserve disclosed daily, and meet nine compliance pillars covering AML/CFT, consumer protection, tech operations and more. The HKMA warns that issuing or actively marketing stablecoins in Hong Kong without a licence can constitute a criminal offence.

Market Fever: Concept Stocks Have Already Doubled

Since April, the “second tier” of virtual-asset plays has led the rally. Guotai Junan International, cleared to offer crypto trading, has surged as much as 450 % this year, while OSL Group (00863.HK), holder of one of the first VA exchange licences, doubled within a month and raised US $300 million on 25 July. The rapid inflow of capital reflects the valuation reset brought by regulatory clarity—yet also suggests that the first-batch licence premium may already be priced in.

Where the Sustainable Opportunities Lie

Even though flagship names have already run hard, longer-lasting gains cluster around three tracks.

Reserve custody and settlement rails: Issuers must lodge fiat reserves with a trust or bank and publish on-chain proofs in real time. The clearing subsidiary of HKEX and bank-backed custody tech firms are positioned to capture this incremental business.

Bank-led and large FinTech issuances: Ant Group, Tencent Finance and several mainland lenders’ Hong Kong units are expected to file for HKD- or USD-denominated stablecoins. Once green-lit, their payment, cross-border settlement and e-commerce ecosystems could drive rapid adoption.

RegTech and on-chain risk management: The new rules mandate continuous monitoring, address screening and suspicious-activity reporting. Local RegTech vendors already serving securities and insurance compliance are extending their modules to stablecoins, offering “compliance-as-a-service” solutions.