《大行》大摩：匯控(00005.HK)第二季收入超預期 升目標價至107.1元 評級「增持」
阿思達克 07-30 15:49
摩根士丹利研究報告指出，匯控(00005.HK)今年第二季調整後稅前利潤，分別較該行預期及市場共識高出10%、12%，主要受非利息收入驅動，淨利息收入也較預期高出2%。匯控重申全年淨利息收入指引，大摩認為能抵消香港商業地產較高撥備的影響，緩解本季度的擔憂。大摩將匯控每股盈餘預估上調1.6%至3%，與共識相近。在1.4倍有形帳面價值下，該行予倫敦上市的匯控(HSBA.L)「與大市同步」評級，在亞洲評級「增持」，目標價從90元升至107.1元。
大摩表示，匯控調整後稅前利潤分別較該行預期、市場共識高出10、12%。受惠於銀行淨利息收入較預期高出2%，以及其他收入分別較市場共識、該行預期高11%、13%。成本符合共識，營運撥備前利潤較預期高出10%。撥備增加主要來自香港商業地產。普通股權一級資本比率(CET1)為14.6%，符合預期。30億美元股票回購和0.10美元股息均符合預期。每股有形帳面價值為9.17美元。
大摩指出香港淨利息收入按季下降6.7%(較大摩預期高1%)，總銀行淨利息收入按季增長1%。匯控管理層重申420億美元淨利息收入指引，假設HIBOR遠期曲線，利率將迅速回升至2%以上。若HIBOR降低1%，將每月影響1億美元收入。費用及其他收入按年增長20%。財富管理收入按年增長22%，較預期高8%，批發交易銀行收入按年增長5%。債券及股票市場收入按年增長14.5%，表現強勁，但低於大摩預期。淨新增投資資產為220億美元，按季持平，亞洲數據較低(110億美元)，被其他市場抵消。
匯控將信貸損失指引從之前的30至40個基點，上調至40個基點。預期信貸損失43個基點，其中4億美元與香港商業地產相關，2億美元反映英國正常化撥備水平。大摩認為全年較高預期反映香港商業地產趨勢，但損失似乎可控。交通銀行(03328.HK)(601328.SH)減值反映已認列的11億美元稀釋，符合預期，另有10億美元減值測試未在共識中。這兩項費用對資本無重大影響。
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