《大行》瑞銀:匯控(00005.HK)列賬稅前盈利超預期 手續費收入強勁
匯豐控股(00005.HK)公布截至今年6月底止上半年業績,列賬基準除稅前利潤158.1億美元,按年跌26.7%,符合本網綜合3間券商預測介乎154.77億至160.73億美元。瑞銀發表研報告指出,匯控早前對其持有的交通銀行(03328.HK)(601328.SH)股份減記21億美元,超出該行預期的16億美元,其重組預算指出(6.52億美元對4億美元)也高於該行預期。瑞銀認為,上述兩者的價值均為「中性」。
該行又指出,匯控今年次季扣除重要項目的列賬稅前盈利(PBT)為91.62億美元,較公司預期高10%。收入高5%,銀行淨利息收入(NII)高2%,手續費及其他收入高11%,營運支出符合預期,撥備前利潤增加10%。減值損失較市場預期高12%,特別是香港商業地產(CRE)的4億美元指出費用。貸款和存款按季增長3%至4%,受英鎊強勢助力。普通股權一級資本充足率(CET1)為14.6%,符合預期,30億美元(市值1.1%)的股票回購計劃,與瑞銀估計的25億美元及市場共識的27.5億美元相比。股息每股10美分,符合預期。
瑞銀表示,匯控除預計2025財年預期信貸損失(ECL)略高外,維持2025年指引不變,包括銀行淨利息收入420億美元(市場共識420.4億美元);目標成本按年增長3%,約333億美元(市場共識333億美元);貸款損失約40個基點(原30至40個基點,共識約40個基點);扣除重要項目的的每年平均有形股本回報率(ROTE)在2025、2026及2027財年均為中十位數(市場共識15.5%、15%、15.5%);普通股權一級資本充足率中期維持在14%至14.5%(2025、2026年市場共識分別為14.5%、14.4%);50%股息支付比率。匯控維持其中期目標,財富管理費用及其他收入以雙位數年均複合增長率(中期)增長,貸款以中單位數年均複合增長率(中長期)增長。
該行表示,在業績公布前與投資者交談,他們擔憂香港房地產信貸撥備,以及匯控能否維持2025財年420億美元的銀行淨利息收入指引。瑞銀指出,實際上,更高的貸款損失預期並不低於市場共識,儘管因HIBOR曲線走弱調整了銀行淨利息收入展望,但淨利息收入指引得以維持(瑞銀認為英鎊及存款增長為抵消因素)。雖然較高的貸款損失使香港2025年第二季稅前利潤與該行估計一致,但該行認為,當地非利息收入(高22%或1.82億美元)及企業與投資銀行業務(高3%,1.1億美元)的強勁表現對整體展望構成正面影響。
瑞銀估計,匯控現估值相當於以2026財年預測市盈率9.5倍,相比渣打(02888.HK)8.8倍,股息收益率5%,淨有形資產1.4倍,對應2026財年預測ROTE14.6%,基於上述原因,瑞銀予倫敦上市的匯控(HSBA.L)「中性」評級及目標價935英鎊。
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