Breakout to a Four-Month High on Heavy Volume; Tech Index Rides Shotgun

Within ten minutes of the opening bell, NIO opened nearly 9 % higher and vaulted past the HK$ 40 mark, with turnover topping HK$ 170 million early on. The Hang Seng Tech Index climbed about 2 % in tandem as auto and internet names lifted overall sentiment. Based on the latest quote, NIO is up more than 40 % this month, while it has only slightly lagged the Hang Seng since January—evidence of how quickly money is flowing back in.

Short-selling pressure, however, remains: the intraday short ratio neared 29 %, suggesting volatility will stay elevated. Many institutions see the spike as “pre-earnings sentiment trading,” driven mainly by southbound funds and quant accounts. If deliveries and margins fail to improve, profit-taking at lofty levels cannot be ruled out.

LeDao L90 Opens Wide-Scale Test Drives: 600 Cars Across 140 Cities

The immediate trigger for the stock jump was CEO William Li’s Weibo post yesterday: from July 23, flagship SUV LeDao L90 will be available for dynamic test drives at more than 400 outlets nationwide, with nearly 600 demo cars covering 140 cities—an unprecedented push before official launch, aimed at turning online buzz into firm orders.

Priced from RMB 279,900, the L90 can be had for just RMB 193,900 upfront when paired with the BaaS battery-leasing plan, positioning it squarely against Li Auto’s L9. Brokers reckon that if monthly deliveries break 10,000 in Q4, the LeDao brand alone could lift NIO’s group gross margin by 3–4 percentage points.

Crucially, the SUV employs a 900-V architecture and in-house SiC power modules, trimming wiring and thermal-management costs by more than 15 % without sacrificing performance—giving large EV SUVs a twin edge of “power and cost.”

A Preview of an Operating Inflection: Volume Rebound Meets Cost Savings

Management said on the June earnings call that a “three-brand shared parts platform” is pushing parts commonality from 60 % to 78 %, cutting bill-of-materials cost per vehicle by roughly 10 %. NIO’s proprietary Shenzi 9031 AD chip replaces NVIDIA’s solution, saving about RMB 10,000 per car; the goal is to restore group gross margin to double digits by Q4.

NIO has also raised its Q2 delivery guidance to 72–75 k units, about 30 % YoY growth. Coupled with the commercialization of battery-swap services and an open energy network, investors are betting on an H2 inflection of “higher volume and ASPs with lower opex.” CICC and BOCOM International assign valuation anchors of 0.6–0.7 × 2025 sales, implying limited downside.

Valuation Normalisation—and Three Key Risks

After the strong rebound, NIO’s Hong Kong shares are brushing up against the upper end of many 12-month target ranges. Future performance hinges on three variables:

1.Delivery execution – valid order intake and on-schedule L90 deliveries are the first hurdle to prove the earnings model;

2.Cost-curve realisation – chip localisation and supply-chain synergy must keep margins above 15 %;

3.Macro and liquidity backdrop – the US-China rate gap, RMB moves, and any tightening in HS Tech Index liquidity could trigger sentiment pullbacks.

With roughly 30 % of the free float sold short, the market is still divided on near-term valuation. Should geopolitics or raw-material prices disrupt the supply chain and slow the new model’s ramp-up, the share price could swing sharply. Investors should gauge their own risk tolerance and time their entries carefully.