《大行》里昂上調周大福(01929.HK)2026財年同店銷售增長預測 升目標價至12元 維持「持有」評級
里昂研究報告指出,因周大福(01929.HK)6月表現較5月疲弱,2026財年第一財季度同店銷售增長(SSSG)在中國內地略低於預期。中國內地、香港及澳門的同店銷售增長分別下跌3%、增加2%。7月至今,周大福同店銷售增長如市場預期轉正值,主要得益於關閉業績不佳的門店、現有門店零售銷售額(RSV)因關閉的店舖而受益,以及新產品的推出。
該行表示,周大福管理層對銷售、毛利率、營運利潤率的指引維持不變,但淨關店數目的指引與2025財年(896家淨關店)相似,高於市場預期。里昂預計,周大福於2026財年在中國內地零售、內地加盟、批發同店銷售增長,分別按年增長4%、5%、3%,將其2026至2027財年銷售、淨利潤預測分別上調3%、5%至6%,以反映2025財年實際數字,淨利潤上調主要因對沖損失減少。里昂又基於更高的盈利預測和目標市盈率倍數,將周大福目標價從9元上調至12元,意味著2026財年預測市盈率為15倍;維持「持有」評級。
里昂表示,周大福7月同店銷售增長將如預期,在中國內地、香港和澳門轉為正值。在金價穩定及婚慶和節日需求的推動下,里昂認為同店銷售增長應繼續改善,並預測2026財年第二季度中國內地同店銷售增長為4%至5%。
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