《大行》中金升閱文集團(00772.HK)目標價至43.5元 維持「跑贏行業」評級
中金發表研究報告指出,閱文集團(00772.HK)擬8月公布今年上半年業績,預計收入為31.26億人民幣,按年下降25.4%;非國際財務報告準則(Non-IFRS)淨利潤4.86億元,按年下降30.8%。
中金表示,閱文集團線上業務經營相對穩定,預計上半年收入19.57億元,按年基本持平。中金又認為,集團線上業務繼續承擔IP蓄水池作用,維持與作家的良好生態,不斷孵化優質IP。
版權營運業務方面,中金預計該業務上半年收入11.69億元,按年下降48%,其中因劇集播出節奏影響,新麗傳媒上半年無劇集播出,但有一定剛性營運費用,預計其今年上半年淨虧損1,500萬元,並維持新麗傳媒2025年全年利潤3.8億元的預測。
中金預計,考慮集團與紅果短劇的合作記賬方式為淨額法,除新麗傳媒以外版權營運業務,在今年上半年或按年下滑2.6%至11.69億元,其利潤端仍可能取得不錯表現。中金又認為,公司優勢在於IP資源的豐富性,有望通過加速自營佈局以及參投產業鏈公司延展IP衍生品的品類矩陣,進一步放大IP價值。
因閱文集團短劇合作記賬模式調整,中金分別下調其2025、2026年收入4%、5%至79億、83億元人民幣,維持非國際財務報告準則(Non-IFRS)淨利潤預測。現價分別對應2025年、2026年21.8、18.9倍非國際財務報告準則市盈率(Non-IFRS P/E),維持「跑贏行業」評級,考慮到行業估值中樞上移,上調目標價20.8%至43.5港元,分別對應2025、2026年非國際財務報告準則市盈率30倍、26倍,較現價有35.7%的上行空間。
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