《大行》招商證券:競爭加劇拖累盈利能見度 齊削阿里(BABA.US)美團(03690.HK)京東(JD.US)目標價
招商證券發表報告,中國電商行業競爭加劇使盈利能見度下降。隨著夏季旺季到來之際,龍頭平台補貼加碼的力度遠超此前預期。阿里巴巴(09988.HK)推出總額達500億元人民幣( 下同)的補貼計劃,並在淘寶閃購與餓了麼平台上發起系列周末促銷活動,推動7月5日單日訂單量達到8,000萬,創下新高。
美團(03690.HK)隨後推出相關促銷活動,同日訂單高峰達到1.2億。京東(09618.HK)秒送訂單量約為2,000萬,並於之後宣布推出100億元人民幣的商家補貼計劃。在三大平台的推動下,行業整體訂單量激增,日訂單總量現已突破2.2億,對比6月的1.5億。當前訂單市場份額分布為美團55%、阿里巴巴36%以及京東9%。
該行預計阿里在即時零售領域的新增投入將在6月季度超過100億元,並將在9月季度翻倍增長,隨後在夏季結束後逐步收縮。同時將京東第二季的收入預測上調1.4%,預計京東將在第二季對即時零售業務投入約100億元,並在第三季進一步加碼至150億元。另預計美團將在第三季進一步加大投入,以鞏固其市場領導地位。因此將其2025財年non-GAAP淨利潤預測下調14%。
該行將阿里2026/2027財年non-GAAP淨利潤預測分別下調23%和6%,並將阿里(BABA.US)目標價由176美元下調至146美元,仍看好阿里巴巴,主因雲業務前景穩健,在市場份額和技術能力方面保持領先;受益於抽佣率提高,客戶管理收入增長趨勢加快;即時零售業務帶來協同效應。
該行將美團2025/2026財年noo-GAAP淨利潤預測分別下調14%和3%,並將目標價由177港元下調至156港元,仍認為美團將維持其市場領導地位,但在激烈競爭環境下,部分市場份額可能被競爭對手蠶食。將京東2025/2026財年的non-GAAP淨利潤預測分別下調 39%和17%,並將京東(JD.US)目標價由54美元下調至42美元。
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