《大行》花旗首次覆蓋藍思科技(06613.HK)H股 評級「買入」目標價26元
花旗發表報告,首次覆蓋藍思科技(06613.HK)H股,給予「買入」評級,目標價26港元(基於19.3倍2026年預測市盈率)。
同時,花旗將藍思科技(300433.SZ)A股的目標價由25元人民幣上調至32元人民幣,仍基於25.7倍市盈率,但改用2026年每股盈測,因摺疊智能手機升級趨勢的能見度提升。該行微調財務模型,但2025至2027年淨利潤預測大致維持不變。從估值角度出發,該行短期內偏好H股多於A股。
在模型中,該行更新了安卓(Android)出貨量預測及組裝業務假設,但被更高的利息收入所抵銷。由於H股上市後的股份稀釋效應,該行將2025至2027年每股盈測下調3%、5%及5%。
花旗認為,H股上市對公司具有正面影響,因可提供更多現金用於潛在研發計劃及海外產能擴張,並擴大海外機構投資者基礎。
花旗重申藍思科技將成為2026年蘋果可能推出的摺疊iPhone之關鍵受惠者。由於該公司採用的超薄玻璃(UTG)、PET材料及玻璃支架技術,預計可使每部手機的玻璃蓋板價值增加超過50美元。該行預估這款潛在的摺疊iPhone將為藍思科技2026及2027年營收分別帶來5%和12%的貢獻。此外,該公司還將受益於前蓋板超硬塗層技術的應用、輕薄機型後蓋物料價值的提升,以及在2025年下半年新款iPhone金屬中框訂單份額的增加。短期來看,由於關稅政策變動所引發的供應鏈調整,iPhone的補庫存需求有望為藍思科技2025年第二至第三季的盈利表現提供支撐。
花旗預期藍思科技的非蘋果業務,將成為市場情緒與長期增長的重要支撐。隨著小米-W(01810.HK)高端手機策略的推進,加上筆記型電腦新業務機會與智能零售支付終端設備的發展,該公司的組裝業務可望持續成長。雖然人工智慧智能眼鏡與人形機器人仍屬新興業務領域,但該行看好其長期發展潛力。
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