《大行》瑞銀:貿易戰降溫下全球鋁需求具韌性 上調宏橋(01378.HK)中鋁(02600.HK)目標價
瑞銀發表研究報告指,隨著貿易戰降溫,工業金屬在「解放日」後已大致收復失地,從而降低了需求衰退的風險。儘管宏觀不確定性有所緩解,但瑞銀認為,貿易戰的影響不太不可結束,對短期前景持審慎態度,包括不確定性可能導致終端需求有所軟化,儘管長期驅動因素和中國適度刺激措施(電網/家電)支撐了普遍穩健的需求,以及關稅前購買的逆轉。
瑞銀表示,鑒於2023、2024年全球經濟增長放緩及中國房地產和建築業下行,鋁也受到一定壓力。但結構性驅動因素包括:汽車輕量化(包括電動車);可再生能源容量的結構性增長(太陽能);電力傳輸的增長(部分由銅替代支持);以及包裝中塑料的替代。瑞銀觀點認為,上述因素將推動鋁業中期需求穩健增長,儘管增速預計將較過去十五年約5%的年均複合增長率有所放緩。
該行指出,短期內,鋁需求將受到以下因素壓制:貿易戰不確定性影響終端需求;關稅前囤貨行為的回調;中國太陽能裝機放緩(受可再生能源關稅調整影響)。因此,瑞銀預計2025年全球鋁需求將低於趨勢增長,但貿易戰降溫和年初以來需求韌性表明市場屬於疲軟而非衰退。基於上述因素,瑞銀將2025年中國鋁價預測上調3%至每噸20,300元人民幣,全球鋁價上調1%至每磅1.11美元,反映最大關稅不確定性已消退。
因為考慮了更高的鋁和氧化鋁價格預測,以及按市價調整原材料價格,瑞銀將相關鋁業上市公司如中國宏橋(01378.HK)、中國鋁業(02600.HK)(601600.SH)及天山鋁業(002532.SZ)股票的2025年盈利預測分別上調12%至14%。瑞銀將中國宏橋的估值方法從市盈率法轉為股息收益率法,因為該行認為:鑒於穩健的鋁價前景,中國宏橋盈利穩定;派息比率較高(約60%以上);近期越來越多投資者參考股息收益率,尤其是在保險基金開始買入後。
瑞銀又基於目標股息收益率9.5%(宏觀團隊對中國10年期國債收益率1.5%加過去三個月的平均利差),將中國宏橋目標價上調27%,從16.5港元升至21港元。中國鋁業H股目標價由原先5.7港元升至6.2港元,天山鋁業目標價上調7%至11.6元人民幣,三股評級均為「買入」。
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