《大行》匯豐研究料阿里(BABA.US)首財季經調整EBITA按年跌15% 目標價降至150美元
匯豐研究發表研究報告指,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)將於8月公布2026財年首季業績,在即時零售投資加碼的推動下,對集團客戶管理收入(CMR)增長前景保持信心,預期GMV市佔率趨穩且變現率持續提升。由於對外賣與即時零售投資增加,該行目前預測阿里首財季收入將按年增長4%,當中雲業務收入料增長23%,經調整EBITA預料按年下跌15%至383億元人民幣,利潤率則下跌3.4個百分點至15%。
匯豐研究認為,集團未來數季對即時零售與外賣業務的投資將顯著增加,可能壓抑盈利表現,上調2026至2028財年收入預測3%至8%以反映訂單量增長,但亦將盈利預測下調7%至22%,預期投資將於截至9月底止次財季見頂,並於2026財年下半年逐步正常化。
在強勁AI需求推動下,該行預期雲業務2026財年收入增速將超過20%,維持阿里的「買入」評級,美股目標價則從176美元下調至150美元。
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