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《大行》匯豐研究升極兔速遞(01519.HK)目標價至9元 海外強勁增長紓緩國內定價壓力
阿思達克 07-10 10:23
匯豐研究發表報告指,極兔速遞(01519.HK)次季在東南亞的包裹量按年增長66%,公司以成本為導向的定價策略初見成效,相信已從同業中搶佔市場份額。另外,公司管理層相信,地緣政治及關稅的不確定性上升,將加快供應鏈本地化,從而有利於其面向當地的業務。 另一方面,隨著消費降級和產能擴張,極兔速遞在中國的競爭加劇,業務繼續面臨嚴峻的定價壓力。今年首五個月,中國的包裹量按年增長20%,惟收入僅升10%,顯示每個包裹的平均收入減少10%。該行認為,由於單位成本改善可能無法完全抵銷平均收入下降,因此每單位盈利能力或會受壓。 匯豐研究將極兔速遞2025至27年的運貨量預測上調4至6%,以反映在更具競爭力的定價推動下,公司加快提升市場佔有率。因此,期內的EBITDA預測亦相應上調7%至15%,而應佔淨利潤預測則調升18%至27%。該行又將公司目標價由5.5元上調至9元,重申「持有」評級。
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