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《大行》交銀認為美團(03690.HK)外賣仍有優勢 維持「買入」目標價165元
阿思達克 07-08 10:06
交銀國際研究報告指,7月5日,美團-W(03690.HK)宣布即時零售日單量超過1.2億,其中餐飲超1億,美團閃購超2,000萬,認為其7月高峰來自行業補貼戰,在阿里宣布淘寶閃購投入500億元人民幣(下同)後,美團率先突破1億日單高峰。 交銀認為美團營運能力仍有優勢,維持「買入」評級。 交銀指,雖然外賣市場競爭加劇,但第2季度美團外賣補貼投入應仍以中高線城市部分競爭品類為主。交銀按約45%的單量補貼翻倍估算,餐飲外賣單量增速或較此前預期的中高個位數提升至10%,日均單量6,480萬單,單均盈利或約1.2至1.3元。考慮到閃購維持略超30%的單量增速,預計即時配送日均單量達到7,700萬單,按年增13%。預計核心本地商務(CLC)收入按年增10%,營運利潤降16%。新業務仍維持此前預期,預計收入增22%,虧損約26億元。 此外,第3季度初即開啟的補貼戰,或帶動日單按年增速達雙位數,但考慮到茶飲單量及補貼沖減影響,平均訂單金額(AOV)或將按年下降,收入增速進一步放緩,但到店仍維持領先地位,預計第3季度核心本地商務收入增速或維持10%,利潤按年下降9%。同時,美團優選關閉減虧區域可能釋放約30至40億元虧損,補充後續外賣補貼投入。因此,交銀認為,即使補貼戰持續至年底,美團仍有機會看到營運利潤持平可能性。 交銀也認為補貼戰對用戶活躍有益,但外賣品類結構調優,行業補貼回落後黏性仍需觀察,商戶、騎手端營運和調度仍是維持市佔核心,美團外賣仍有領先優勢,並有較大概率維持市佔,短期利潤下調不影響長期觀點,股價下行空間有限。交銀維持美團目標價165港元,維持「買入」評級。
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