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《大行》高盛下調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至146元 降盈利預測因外賣及閃購投資增加
阿里-W(09988.HK)今早(3日)股價造淡,低開0.5%後跌幅擴大,盤中曾低見105.2元一度下滑3.8%,最新報106元走低3.1%,成交額78.73億元。 高盛發表報告,阿里(BABA.US)美股於過去一個月股價下跌16%,該行總結了投資者關於以下問題的主要關注點:(1)餓了麼及飛豬併入中國電商業務集團的戰略重組、(2)淘寶閃購的最新進展及即時零售競爭格局、(3)阿里在618購物節的表現。考慮到業務勢頭強勁,但餐飲外賣、即時零售業務投資增加,該行下調對阿里2026財年至2028財年每股盈利預測4%至13%,同時上調2026財年至2028財年集團收入預測2%至4%,並將阿里美股目標價由159美元降至150美元,將阿里H股目標價由154港元降至146港元。 該行指,維持對阿里「買入」評級,因其仍爲多項公司及行業驅動因素的主要受益者,包括:(1)對核心業務(電商+雲)的投資以重燃增長;(2)作爲中國最大的超大規模雲服務提供商,帶來AI/雲業務上行空間;(3)潛在的國內消費刺激政策及持續的AI驅動廣告科技升級,推動CMR(客戶管理收入)增長及淘寶天貓利潤穩定;(4)股東回報(三年股票回購計劃+年度股息)。 就淘寶閃購的最新進展及即時零售競爭格局方面:7月2日,阿里巴巴宣佈投資500億元人民幣用於即時零售,以支持用戶和商家。6月23日,淘寶宣佈淘寶閃購及餓了的日訂單量超過6,000萬,較淘寶閃購推出以來的非餐飲外賣訂單量增長179%,即時配送率達96%。這是在5月26日實現日訂單量4,000萬後不到一個月的成績。5月和6月,淘寶閃購採取更激進的補貼策略(例如爲1億消費者提供奶茶優惠活動、與支付寶聯動的每日促銷),並獲得淘寶和支付寶主App的大量流量支持。
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