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《大行》中金:對港股短期宜適度降低倉位 要留好「子彈」等待後續時機
中金近日發表港股策略報告表示,港股行業輪動的宏觀環境:「資金盛+資產荒=指數震盪+極致結構」,市場之所以呈現這種指數震盪,但結構行情活躍的特徵,是與整體經濟回報不足(私人部門信用週期收縮,財政發力「有所保留」)、存在結構性亮點(AI產業、新消費等)、但資金又非常充裕這三個宏觀環境所決定的。綜合來看,短期新消費與創新藥交易擁擠度仍在高位但AI產業鏈擁擠度回落,南向資金近期同樣關注新消費與創新藥,估值層面科技互聯網龍頭與ROE基本匹配,但部分新消費已相對較高。 賣空、超買超賣與空頭倉位方面:部分新消費與製造業龍頭短期空頭倉位提升較快。該行通過將個股累計空頭倉位與其過去30日均成交量相比計算得到每隻個股空頭交易所需天數,建議投資者警惕短期內累計空頭倉位以及空頭交易所需天數快速增長的個股。 估值方面:中金指高分紅AH溢價視角下125%是閾值(臨界值),科技互聯網龍頭與ROE基本匹配,但部分新消費估值較高。今年以來中國經濟整體仍需修復、但結構有亮點的宏觀環境,這些亮點恰恰都在港股,例如AI相關的科技互聯網迎來了估值修復,部分新消費板塊更是突破了傳統消費領域估值思路的「束縛」。該行認爲判斷港股估值不能「一蹴而就」。首先高分紅板塊,通過AH溢價視角考慮到港股通個人和公募投資者需要支付至少20%紅利稅,AH溢價收斂至125%(100%/0.8),這部分投資者在A股與港股買分紅資產就沒有差異了,近期AH溢價也曾一度突破127%的低位但觸及後有所反彈。 而科技互聯網與新消費對比盈利ROE視角看,按這一比例看估值已經合理。換一個思路,從盈利收益率(E/P)的視角上看,泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)的E/P今年以來一度快速回落至2.0%附近,接近10年國債利率想要突破或許也有難度。 對市場而言,恆指過去一個月一直處於該行給出的23,000至24,000點區間震盪,對應的風險溢價與計入樂觀情緒已經與去年10月初高點相當,因此想要進一步樂觀也需要更多催化劑,更不用說近期香港金管局在港元觸及7.85的弱方保證後已開始邊際收緊流動性,後續還有關稅與政策等不確定性需要觀察。行業層面,上文分析顯示,新消費和創新藥抱團也非常明顯。這一背景下,短期流動性邊際趨緊,關稅談判變數,數據轉弱和政策發力延後,都不排除造成市場波動。因此,中金建議,投資者可以1)短期適度降低倉位,2)或切換到穩健分紅,3)預期較年初已明顯降溫的AI互聯網,等待後續時機。如果出現較大波動,反而可以更爲積極地介入,以更低的成本買回優質的資產,但前提是要留好「子彈」。
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