《大行》交銀國際:美聯儲或最早末季降息 維持年底前降息1至2次判斷
交銀國際研究報告指,2025年6月19日,美聯儲FOMC會議依然選擇按兵不動,符合市場及該行的預期。但交銀指,儘管近期在限制性利率水平和金融狀況收緊的共同作用下,零售、工業產出等硬性經濟數據有所轉弱,但當前時點下,關稅帶來的上行風險尚未反映在數據層面,而近期的地緣風險更加劇了政策路徑判斷的複雜性。
交銀表示,美聯儲2026年後的政策路徑分歧加大。年內來看,美聯儲委員們的「滯脹預期」較3月進一步深化,且對年內不降息的看法更為集中。2026年及往後的政策路徑分歧加大,但其影響意義可以淡化。
交銀又指,不但經濟迷霧重重,美國國內政治壓力使得美聯儲的獨立性面臨考驗。鮑威爾的任期僅剩不到一年,維護美聯儲獨立性和其職業聲譽的訴求驅使下,大概率會繼續選擇無視白宮壓力。
該行認為,降息可能最早在第四季度,但仍存在年底前不降息的風險,但維持預計年底前降息1至2次的判斷,具體取決於經濟收縮的程度和關稅政策的實際影響。
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