《大行》浦銀國際料美聯儲最快9月重啓降息 觀察關稅對通脹衝擊是否爲一次性
浦銀國際發表報告,指6月美聯儲會議繼續決定暫停降息,符合市場預期,爲應對關稅挑戰,美聯儲下調了美國今明兩年GDP預測,上調了2025年至2027年的失業率和通脹預期,這或意味滯漲風險上升。正如該行此前所預期的,美聯儲維持今年50個基點的降息幅度預測不變,但點陣圖顯示預計不降息者人數上升。從點陣圖來看,本次會議有7人預計今年不會降息,高於上次會議的4人,且僅比預測今年有2次降息的人少一人。2人預計今年降息1次(上次有4人),8人預計今年降息2次,另有2人預計今年降息3次。點陣圖的變化意味着美聯儲內部對降息的意見分歧增加,降息次數預測此後有下調的可能性。
鮑威爾在記者會上表示,預計未來數月通脹壓力會因關稅而顯着上升,該行預計關稅影響最快從7至8月的通脹數據中顯露。鮑威爾的發言或暗示美聯儲要在看到顯着的勞動力市場疲軟,或者明確的跡象表明關稅導致的通脹上升較爲溫和後,纔會開始降息。
浦銀國際表示,維持美聯儲最快9月重啓降息,全年降息兩次,每次降25個基點的基本預測。從關稅談判來看,特朗普在6月中美倫敦會談後表示美方會將對中國商品的平均關稅維持在55%,而中方將放開稀土的出口管制。這符合該行在下半年展望報告作出的下半年關稅維持現狀的基本假設,也有助於緩解短期內市場對中美關稅戰的擔憂。不過,目前尚無明確的貿易協議公佈,尚不明確該項承諾是永久性的還是暫時性的。對90天暫緩期即將結束(7月8日)的其他國家而言,特朗普的態度則較爲模棱兩可。基於「個性化對等關稅」對美國經濟的顯着傷害,該行依然認爲特朗普最終將延長「個性化對等關稅」實施的暫緩期。不過考慮到特朗普政策的多變性,亦不能排除特朗普先宣佈執行新的雙邊關稅,再宣佈暫緩的可能性。
從美聯儲的聲明來看,美聯儲仍希望在看到關稅對通脹的影響有多大,更爲明確關稅衝擊是否爲一次性之後,再決定是否降息。該行認爲美聯儲短期內對降息或仍持觀望態度,下一次降息最快要等到9月。
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