《大行》瑞銀降青島港(06198.HK)評級至 「中性」 估值不再具吸引力
瑞銀研究報告指,青島港(06198.HK)股價自4月底以來反彈約24%,原因包括港口吞吐量表現穩健(部分由於中美貿易提前裝運)以及貿易爭端暫時緩解。不過,該行認為,自上次盈利修訂以來,青島港基本面沒有變化,美國和中國均大幅降低了相互關稅稅率,並同意繼續談判,認為青島港股價上漲後估值已不再具吸引力,因此將評級從 「買入」下調至 「中性」。
瑞銀預測青島港2025年的集裝箱吞吐量將年增1%或不增長,超越中國沿海港口的年減1%或2%,此優異表現歸因於青島港對亞洲內部貿易的較高敞口,即受美國較高關稅影響較小。瑞銀又預計,中國2025年次季或第三季的集裝箱吞吐量增長,較今年首季年增8%放緩,並在2025年第四季顯著回落。
瑞銀認為,青島港的估值在2026年預估市淨率0.8倍及10.8%的淨資產收益率下屬合理。此外,青島港的2026年預測股息率為5.2%,接近十年平均水平。該行將基於青島港價值加總(SOTP)的12個月目標價,從7.50元微降至7.4元,並將評級從「買入」下調至 「中性」。
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