《大行》招商證券國際認為小米(01810.HK)YU7爆款潛力巨大 明年有望翻倍增長
招商證券國際研究報告指,小米-W(01810.HK)創始人雷軍宣布小米首款SUV車型YU7將於6月底的新品會發布,預計7月上市。發布會將同時推出多款新品,包括15S手機及搭載自研玄戒O1晶片的平板7SPro等。該行認為,小米YU7產品力強,線索量為SU7三倍,預示爆款潛力巨大,明年有望翻倍增長。
報告指,小米首款汽車SU7大獲成功,提升小米擴大客戶群體,提升客流量並交叉銷售,令手機及其他業務間接受益,形成小米獨有的 「人車家」生態圈。YU7有將進一步提升小米汽車產品線高度,強化其生態圈優勢。該行表示,截至YU7技術發布後三天,YU7留資用戶數(線索量)是SU7技術發布同期的3倍,其中超60%用戶為首次留資,超過40%的留資用戶從未使用過小米產品,預示YU7或比SU7更出圈,更有爆款效應。
該行估計YU7起步價為25萬元人民幣(下同)左右,最大直接競品為特斯拉ModelY,以及蔚來09866.HK)EC6及未上市的小鵬(09868.HK)G7,YU7將對其他競品產生一定程度的虹吸效應。而YU7穩態月銷量達到3萬至4萬台,小米汽車2025年銷量達35萬至40萬輛,SU7+YU7月銷量有望衝擊5萬至6萬輛,明年有望挑戰年銷量70萬至80萬輛。考慮明年繼續投放新車型,若產能釋放足夠,樂觀條件下有機會挑戰100萬輛。
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招商證券國際對汽車及相關行業股份的投資評級及目標價:
股份│投資評級│目標價
吉利(00175.HK)│增持│27.5元
比亞迪(01211.HK)│增持│170元
小鵬汽車(09868.HK)│增持│115元
中升控股(00881.HK)│增持│24元
福耀玻璃(03606.HK)│增持│73元
理想汽車(02015.HK)│增持│138元
長城汽車(02333.HK)│增持│19元
敏實集團(00425.HK)│增持│34元
濰柴動力(02338.HK)│增持│19.1元
京東方精電(00710.HK)│增持│7.6元
特斯拉(TSLA.US)│增持│452美元
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