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《港樓》中原按揭王美鳳料今年本港H按息在區間上落
中原按揭董事總經理王美鳳稱,美國聯儲局維持聯邦基金利率於4.25釐至4.5釐不變,符合市場預期,連續四次會議按兵不動。具指標性的匯豐銀行已宣佈最優惠利率維持於5.25%同符市場預期,相信本港銀行將跟隨維持最優惠利率P不變。 王美鳳預期美息在年內仍處回落週期,預計下半年美國有機會再次減息,年內美國減息或達兩次合共半釐,利率回落至4釐之下,未來逐步降至3釐多水平;基於本港拆息已提早下跌紓減銀行資金成本,預期下半年當美國減息本港銀行將會跟隨下調最優惠利率P,本港銀行去年提速減P累達0.625釐後,今年P減幅尚餘0.25釐,今年美國將繼續減息而港P將會進一步下調0.25釐後完成減P週期,屆時以P按爲基準之H按封頂息率將減至3.25%,封頂息率下跌有利按揭申請人的入息水平要求降低,有利支持樓市。 近日港匯轉弱已臨近7.85水平,不排除短期內將觸及弱方兌換保證令金管局需被動入市促使銀行體系結餘減少,基於港息異常大幅度低於美息相信已引發套息活動增加、加上半年結季節性等因素,相信港元拆息或將會有所回升;但預料港美息差仍會較以往拉闊,加上下半年美國再次減息機會亦大,料港息仍會低於今年5月前水平,料本港H按息較主要在現有水平1.84%以及2釐至3釐區間上落。 王美鳳續指,自5月起受惠按息大幅下跌、供樓負擔顯着減輕、加上「供平過租」推動「轉租爲買」需求增加、按息與定存息同步下降令買樓收租吸引力上升,近月無論一二手樓市交投均顯着增加,樓市出現回暖向好,下半年美國減息機會仍大,有利支持樓市。
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