《大行》匯豐研究:阿里食品配送和即時購物逾百億人幣投資非全部屬新增
匯豐環球研究發表報告表示,該行於上周五(30日)及上周六(31日)與阿里巴巴(09988.HK)投資者關係總監投資者關係經理Olivia Sha舉辦非交易路演(NDR)。
就投資者關注的主要三項問題:
1)集團盈利展望:該行認為,淘寶天貓的短期盈利增長可能因加大即時購物和618促銷的投資而出現波動,但佣金率提升將部分抵消影響。整體集團盈利也將因國際電商和數字媒體與娛樂(DME)虧損收窄而得到緩衝。
2)加大投資:有內媒報道指阿里巴巴旗下食品配送和即時購物的總投資可能超過100億元人民幣,阿里巴巴稱該投資並非全部為新增投資,部分屬於淘寶天貓持續的用戶獲取投資。無論如何,淘寶天貓仍處於投資階段,會優先考慮用戶增長和體驗改善,而非利潤最大化。
3)雲業務增長與芯片限制:阿里巴巴稱推動雲業務收入加速增長保持信心,主要驅動力來自新興AI收入和公共雲採用的增加,公司觀察到模型訓練和推理均有強勁的AI計算需求。推理需求的增長超過訓練需求,這有助於降低對先進芯片的新需求依賴。阿里巴巴仍致力於未來三年投入3,800億元人民幣的AI相關資本支出。
就國內電商更新:618活動的開始日期再次提前,阿里巴巴承認將增加補貼並簡化促銷規則以更好地吸引用戶。618期間的電商競爭依然激烈。更積極的一面是,全平台促銷的推出已成為提升CMR(佣金率)及技術費的關鍵驅動力。該行預計全平台廣告將在中長期內繼續成為驅動因素。阿里巴巴受益於中國政府促進公平競爭的政策,積極利用微信和小紅書等新興社交媒體來增加用戶獲取,推動活躍買家增長。
即時購物作為新的增長驅動力:商務部國際貿易經濟合作研究院估計,到2030年,即時購物將為國內帶來2萬億元人民幣的增量市場機會。阿里巴巴計劃積極擴大市場份額,充分利用淘寶與品牌/商家的強大關係、餓了麼的配送網絡和算法,以及第三方營運數據。餓了麼和淘寶已實現超過4,000萬的日均訂單(食品和其他即時零售),對比對手京東為日均2,500萬。該行維持阿里「買入」評級及目標價176美元。(wl/u)
~
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.