《大行》野村:蔚來(NIO.US)首季業績總體符預期 但前方仍面臨挑戰
野村報告指,蔚來(NIO.US)第一季度實現收入120億元人民幣,按年增長21%,按季下降39%,略低於原指引及市場預期。車輛交付量達4.21萬輛,按年增長40%,按季下降42%,符合指引。車輛銷售額為99億元人民幣,按年增長19%,按季下降43%,主要受產品組合變化影響,車輛平均售價按年下降15%。蔚來第一季度毛利率為7.6%,按年上升2.7個百分點,按季下降4.1個百分點;車輛利潤率為10.2%,按年上升1.0個百分點,按季下降2.9個百分點,兩者均受銷量按年增加及按季減少影響。經營利潤率為-53.3%,按年改善1.1個百分點,按季惡化22.7個百分點,主要因銷售及行政費用按年增長47%,主要來自銷售人員成本及銷售與市場推廣活動增加。因此,蔚來2025年第一季度錄得淨虧損69億元人民幣,虧損按年增加31%,按季僅增3%,較2024年第四季度歷史高位略增。
關於2025年第二季度指引,公司預計交付7.2萬至7.5萬輛,按年增長26%至31%,這也意味著2025年6月將有2.5萬至2.8萬輛的銷售。在收入方面,公司指引第二季度收入範圍為195億至201億元人民幣,按年可能增長12%至15%。據此,野村估計2025年第二季度的每輛車平均售價約為22.8萬元人民幣,較第一季度23.6萬元進一步下降4%,這主要因樂道(Onvo)和螢火蟲(Firefly)品牌貢獻增加。考慮到其在財務上面臨的挑戰,公司維持以改善毛利率而非交付量為首要目標的計劃。
野村表示,蔚來最新交付的Onvo品牌有所改善,看到公司正面的變化。與此同時,該行對蔚來2025年的業務計劃保持謹慎態度——即通過新車型推出實現強勁銷售增長,同時努力降低成本。如果公司能在2025年第四季度成功實現蔚來品牌和Onvo品牌各自月銷2.5萬輛,並提升研發和銷售及行政費用的成本效率,相信未來將有重新評估的機會。然而,公司仍需關注其財務狀況,該行認為2025年剩餘季度內需要更多融資。考慮到業務營運和財務狀況的不確定性,以及相對較低的估值,維持「中性」評級,基於現金流折現的目標價維持在5美元。
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