《港樓》世邦魏理仕料明年一手貨尾逐步回落
世邦魏理仕香港估值及諮詢服務部執行董事郭偉恩表示,5月成交量按月回落10.3%至5,105宗。儘管有所下跌,成交量已連續三個月維持在超過5,000宗的相對較高水平,亦是自2021年樓市下行以來首次。
縱觀目前樓市情況,該行預期這一趨勢將持續,顯示成交量正穩步回升,亦反映買家對香港樓市信心正逐步恢復。隨着成交量的回升,預計貨尾很快就會達到高峯;而從明年開始貨尾將逐步回落。
三大關鍵因素支持成交量維持在超過5,000宗水平,包括:市場已消化關稅戰的負面影響;隨着5月份港元1個月同業拆息(HIBOR)急速下降,住宅物業正利差再次重現 ;政府對價值不超過400萬元的物業減免印花稅政策。
世邦魏理仕指,住宅物業正利差重現標誌着一個轉捩點。如果這趨勢可以持續下去,住宅物業市場將步入復甦期。供平過租現象將吸引用家及收租投資者逐步入市,進一步刺激置業需求。因此維持全年約60,000宗成交的預測。
至於一手市場方面,發展商因應4月市況波動暫緩推出新盤,以重新評估定價及策略。期內僅推出一個新盤。因此近期成交量上升主要由二手市場帶動。隨着更多新盤自5月底起陸續推出,世邦魏理仕預期一手會搶佔更多市場成交。
(ha/u)
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