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《大行》高盛:市場低估內地外賣配送業競爭持續時間、阿里對相關業務投資規模
阿里-W(09988.HK)今日(30日)股價受壓,低開2.5%,盤中曾見低見112.8元一度下滑近4.5%,最新報113.6元跌3.8%,失守100天平均線113.71元,成交額101.5億元。 高盛發表中資互聯網行業報告表示,近期投資者主要聚焦三個問題,第一外賣競爭與電商的再投資、第二是AI應用受益者、第三是地緣政治/關稅發展的影響。就內地外賣行業競爭,未來的發展路徑及最終格局是甚麼?該行估計,京東-SW(09618.HK)、美團-W(03690.HK)和阿里旗下餓了麼的增量補貼已將外賣行業的訂單量增長從中單位數推高至30%以上按年增長,提升了服務消費(加上政府「以舊換新」計劃推動了商品消費),並創造了數以十萬計新的每日騎手就業機會。該行估計京東今年第二季度新業務EBIT虧損爲100億元人民幣(原先預測爲70億人民幣),並料美團旗下外賣業務利潤按年下降50億至60億元人民幣(意味按年跌約53%)。 總體而言,該行估計阿里第二季度集團EBIT升5%、料拼多多次季EBIT跌38%、估計美團次季EBIT滑51%,料京東次季度集團EBIT按年下滑56%,相較各公司自2025年市盈率12倍、11倍、22倍及10倍。 該行認爲,京東按風險回報計最爲有利,因爲京東零售的(撇除外賣業務)隱含預測市盈率估值僅爲6倍,同時是2025年第一季度增長最快的電商平臺,該行估計京東GMV增長爲16%,一般商品增長加速,相比拼多多15%、快手15%、淘寶及天貓5%至6%)。該行認爲,市場可能低估了京東將外賣作爲新流量獲取來源的決心(相對於其每年500億元人民幣的營銷預算,其中大部分用於客戶獲取,因京東應用的日活躍用戶規模和頻次相對同行處於劣勢),以及阿里在該業務上的投資規模,因此低估了內地外賣競爭的潛在持續時間。 高盛預計京東未來三至六個月將專注於建設其騎手網絡和提升用戶體驗,以提高補貼效率。對於美團,該行在綜合估值方式(SOTP)中已反映出2025至2027年外賣業務的正常化GTV利潤率目標下調至2.5%(之前爲3.2%),並預計中期競爭將加劇,該行預計基線情況下最終市場格局爲60%:20%:20%,美團仍將是明顯的領先者。 另一個市場關注的問題:AI交易暫時結束了嗎?隨着中國最大雲端超大規模運算提供商阿里的股價回調以及AI應用相關公司股價表現,高盛預計中國雲服務提供商第二季度的資本支出預測將低於市場預測,原因與外國晶片供應限制有關。因此,該行預期投資者的焦點將更多從AI基礎設施轉向AI應用。該行預計未來三至六個月將有更多模型推出以及更多 AI代理推出,這應能維持投資者對該主題的興趣,特別是圍繞AI應用,而該行認爲騰訊(00700.HK)和快手-W(01024.HK)是AI應用的主要受益者。
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