《大行》高盛:內地電商短期利潤前景面臨挑戰性 互聯網股看好騰訊、網易及小米等
高盛發表報告,中資互聯網公司今年首季度收入穩健、淨利潤超出預期,但對普遍第二季度盈利能力持漸進採取保守態度,因平台生態系統(商家、消費者)、食品外賣補貼(由電商提供)、AI(應用和超大規模GPU折舊)以及海外擴張等方面的投資增加。
投資者主要聚焦三個問題,第一外賣競爭與電商的再投資:鑑於拼多多(PDD.US)首季度利潤未達預期,以及京東-SW(09618.HK)在三個月內從進入食品外賣領域到實現日均訂單2,000萬單的顯著進展,投資者關注當前競爭的持續時間和強度,以及不同最終情景下的風險/回報。該行將中國電商子行業偏好從第3位下調至第4位,因短期利潤前景更具挑戰性,但認為京東在12個月視角下具有最有利的上行風險回報。
第二是AI應用受益者:高盛認為騰訊的「廣告+遊戲」業務將最直接受益於AI在廣告科技/遊戲體驗中的應用,同時快手-W(01024.HK)的可靈AI(文字轉視頻)在全球進展強勁。與此同時,關於AI助手的終極形式仍存在爭論——是超級應用(如微信)還是手機製造商(如小米(01810.HK))。第三是地緣政治/關稅發展的影響,投資者關注如何應對地緣政治和關稅發展的影響
該行指,對中資互聯網行業2025年五大主題作出調整,遊戲繼續是首選子行業(第一位),繼續看好穩定格局的出行領域(第二位)。該行將互聯網垂直領域的偏好從第4位提升至第3位,因投資者尋求市場結構更有利/進入壁壘更高的業務,以應對電商/本地服務競爭。
高盛表示,關鍵股票推薦遊戲行業包括騰訊(00700.HK)及網易-S(09999.HK),出行行業看好滿幫(YMM.US),互聯網垂直領域中看好小米-W(01810.HK)及攜程-S(09961.HK);電商領域看好京東及快手。
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