《大行》高盛降美團(03690.HK)目標價至172元 競爭加劇
高盛發表報告指,預計市場對美團-W(03690.HK)第一季度穩固超預期表現的反應將喜憂參半,儘管初步看第一季度核心本地商務利潤超出預期,但自第二季度開始,外賣競爭格局加劇,導致外賣補貼增加(對美團而言特別是自5月起),對美團外賣業務的短期利潤產生重大影響。
高盛預測美團第二季度核心本地商務收入及利潤分別按年增長11%和下跌35%(此前預測爲升18%和升15%),因美團承諾積極扞衛其外賣市場領導地位,專注於維持交易總額(GTV)市場份額,利用其主平臺拼好飯(低單價訂單)及「神搶手」(中高價位產品),採取廣泛策略。
高盛相信,美團迅速且果斷的策略應有助於其扞衛外賣市場領導地位,監於美團行業領先的1,450萬戶本地服務商戶覆蓋、會員計劃下黏性強的目標導向外賣及本地服務用戶,以及其自營騎手網絡(對外賣至關重要,估計美團自配送60%的日均訂單)。然而,該行承認,隨着京東-SW(09618.HK)對其外賣業務的承諾,中期外賣行業格局將更爲分散。該行現將美團外賣業務在2025至2027年平均標準化外賣交易總額利潤率目標下調至2.5%(此前爲3.2%),以反映中期競爭略有加劇,並因競爭加劇將美團外賣業務在該行總和估值法中的目標倍數從15倍下調至12倍。
高盛將美團2025年至2027財年收入預測下調最多3%,同時將2025年至2027財年調整後淨利潤預測分別下調34%、16%及10%,反映外賣利潤和估值因行業格局可能從「雙雄爭霸」轉爲「三強競爭」而向下重置。維持對美團的「買入」評級,但目標價從200港元下調至172港元,因公司自2026財年起具有利潤復甦潛力,因預計阿里-W(09988.HK)和京東的高額補貼將在2025年下半年逐漸正常化。該行對美團在整體本地服務的領導地位保持信心,包括外賣業務、仍在快速增長的到店本地服務板塊的穩定格局、快速增長的按需閃購零售驅動因素,以及人工智能應用和Keeta帶來的新增長軌跡,同時公司擁有強健的資產負債表。
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