惠譽降全球汽車行業今年展望自至「惡化」 美國關稅對中國車市直接影響有限
惠譽評級亞太區企業評級董事總經理王穎表示,該行對全球汽車行業的2025年展望自「中性」下調至「惡化」。美國政府宣佈對汽車進口徵收關稅可能導致全球車企產量削減和成本增加。惠譽已將2025年美國輕型汽車銷量假設從今年年初的1,630萬輛下調至1,520萬輛,同時將歐洲的銷量假設從1,300萬輛下調至1,250萬輛。
惠譽預計中國零售汽車市場在2025年實現低個位數百分比增長。由於中國對美國汽車市場的直接出口敞口很小,惠譽預計美國關稅對中國汽車行業的直接影響有限。儘管中美貿易對峙局勢升級對消費者信心構成壓力,但在政府補貼延續及持續價格競爭的刺激下,2025年第一季度中國國內新車零售銷量穩步增長5.9%。純電動汽車銷量較2024年第一季度的低迷水平反彈45%。受此拉動,2025年第一季度國內新能源汽車零售量按年勁增37%,新能源汽車市場繼續擴大,佔總銷量47%。
惠譽指,2025年中國汽車的出口前景或將進一步弱化。2021年至2023年,中國汽車出口市場連續三年取得高速增長,實現了跨越式發展。中國汽車出口量在2023至2024年連續兩年超越日本,居全球榜首位置,反映出中國汽車行業在全球市場競爭力的提升。但中國汽車出口量高速增長期已經過去。俄羅斯對燃油車的需求暴跌令2025年第一季度中國的乘用車出口量按年僅小幅增長6.1%。雖然美國加徵關稅的直接影響預計有限,但中國汽車出口商可能需要應對其他地區市場需求衝擊和保護主義加劇帶來的風險。
惠譽指,內地車市「以價換量」競爭白熱化。折扣力度加大、「一口價」政策以及車型增配降價均反映了競爭的進一步白熱化程度。市場激烈競爭以及向較低端車型的結構性轉變,或將導致平均售價下滑。豪華品牌與中國新能源車品牌的價格競爭持續白熱化,零售折扣力度加大且新車配置不斷升級;而主流合資品牌紛紛採用一口價策略抗衡新能源車製造商的直銷模式。截至2025年第一季度末,主流合資品牌和豪華品牌的經銷商庫存均處於1.7個月以上的高位,顯示去庫存壓力猶存。
惠譽指,內地車企爲贏得智駕平權時代的激烈競爭需要經歷一場平衡技術升級和成本控制的持續戰。高階智能駕駛系統的研發和集成需要鉅額投入,在消費信心疲軟,競爭激烈的市場環境中將進一步使車企的資金壓力和盈利承壓,尤其是中低端車型若搭載高階智駕功能往往處於虧本銷售狀態。因此車企只有通過不斷完善產品和銷售戰略,擴大銷量規模,實現供應鏈深度優化整合,在全產業鏈都不斷追求降本增效和技術革新的條件下,才能實現可持續的盈利模式。
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