研報掘金丨華創證券:予大秦鐵路目標價7.7元,強調“推薦”評級
華創證券研報指出,大秦鐵路(601006.SH)24年歸母淨利潤90.39億元,同比下滑24.23%;25年Q1歸母淨利潤25.71億元,同比下滑15.61%。公司貨運業績下降主要原因為上游貨源受限,2024年山西省原煤產量減產1.1億噸;進口煤炭衝擊,全年煤炭進口量5.4億噸,同比增長14.4%;以及能源結構變化。2025年Q1,大秦線累計完成貨物運輸量9,272萬噸,同比減少5.62%,降幅收窄。公司核心路產大秦線在國家“西煤東運”“北煤南運”能源運輸體系中居於重要地位,我國煤炭生產重心加快向“三西”地區集中,使得公司區位優勢更加凸顯。國家“調整運輸結構”的目標任務仍在延續推進,公司經營地域內“公轉鐵”仍有較大空間。公司持續高分紅,2024年分紅比例57.31%,假設維持,以25年盈利預測對應股息率4.3%。維持此前估值方法,認為公司至少應迴歸1倍PB或以上,對應目標價7.7元,預期較當前16%空間,強調“推薦”評級。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.