研報掘金丨申萬宏源:維持中國重工“買入”評級,301新方案影響大幅減弱
申萬宏源研究指出,中國重工(601989.SH)2024年歸母13.11億元,略高於預增範圍中值,同比由負轉正;2025Q1歸母淨利潤5.19億元,同比增長284%,接近預增範圍中值,符合預期。高價訂單陸續交付,利潤彈性驗證。交付:據年報,公司2024年交付船舶62 艘/548.58DWT,同比增長13.4%。據克拉克森,公司未來三年(2025-2027)訂單交付量(CGT)預計同比變化+9%、+31%、+31%,交付訂單金額預計同比+27%、+53%、+36%。,當前2027年排產CGT、金額分別較2024年交付量高出87%、165%。301 對船廠影響較原方案大幅減弱,新簽訂單量及船價有望企穩上行。考慮到此前部分訂單交付延遲,訂單排產相應延後,參考最新排產情況,下調公司2025-2026年盈利預測,新增2027年預測。當前PO(市值訂單比)0.63倍,處於歷史底部(歷史範圍0.6-10),維持“買入”評級。
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