反轉時刻來了？“豬茅”淨利扭虧為盈，同比大增519％，擬10派5.72元
今日晚間，“豬茅”牧原股份公佈了2024年財報，淨利潤同比增長超5倍。
降本有成效
2024年，牧原股份實現營業收入1379.47億元，同比增加 24.43%；淨利潤為178.81億元，同比增加519.42%，扭虧為盈。
其中，養殖業務收入為1362.29億元，同比增長25.88%；屠宰、肉食業務收入為242.74億元，同比增長11.03%；貿易業務收入14.32億元，同比下降52.62%；其他業務收入4.47億元，同比下降17.75%。
2024年，牧原股份銷售生豬7160.2萬頭，其中商品豬6547.7萬頭，仔豬565.9萬頭，種豬46.5萬頭。期間，屠宰生豬1252.44萬頭，銷售鮮、凍品等豬肉產品141.59萬噸。
在降本增效的作用下，牧原股份2024年底的生豬養殖完全成本已降至13元/kg左右，全年生豬養殖完全成本約14元/kg左右。
截至2024年末，牧原股份已有養殖產能約8100萬頭/年，共投產10家屠宰廠，投產屠宰產能2900萬頭/年。
去年，儘管負債依然高企，但牧原股份截至2024年末，牧原股份總資產1876.49億元，同比減少3.97%；負債總額1101.12億元，同比減少9.27%。公司資產負債率為58.68%，較年初下降3.43個百分點，雖有所改善但仍處於較高水平。
展望2025年，牧原股份預計出欄商品豬7200萬頭-7800萬頭，仔豬800萬頭-1200萬頭。
同時，牧原股份擬向全體股東每10股派發現金紅利5.72元，分紅總額30.83億元。
反轉時刻到來？
與亮眼業績不同的是，牧原股份的股價一路走低，從2021年2月起已經連續4年震盪走低，累計跌幅超36%。
截至今日收盤，牧原股份最新報38.74元/股，總市值2116億元。
近年來，豬企博弈激烈，豬週期一直未能走出底部。
2024年，國內生豬均價同比上升，且處於行業成本線以上，生豬養殖行業扭虧為盈。
據農業農村部數據，2024年出欄生豬頭均盈利214元，比2023年提高了290元。
對此，開源證券指出，本輪豬週期提前博弈，對豬週期反轉初期能繁環比增加容忍度降低，生豬板塊當前處相對低位，估值有望隨宏觀預期好轉修復，龍頭高業績兑現高分紅投資價值顯現。
海通證券認為，2025年生豬養殖股價表現或好於2024年，產能去化是主要邏輯，個股的選擇需要兼顧成本、出欄增速、資金。中長期來看，非瘟趨緩、行業競爭激烈、利潤空間壓縮，成本的重要性空前提升，不同成本公司間的差異將拉大，低成本公司有望獲得更好的利潤和發展空間，以及更高的估值溢價。
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