《大行報告》中金:AI手機是把大模型裝進手機 建議關注小米、比亞迪電子及舜宇等
中金發表報告指出,繼人工智能個人電腦(AI PC)後,AI手機在模型側、硬件側、操作系統及應用側均存在產業升級趨勢,未來AI手機或將重塑手機行業生態。AI手機把大模型裝進手機,智能終端演進的新方向。其當前的發展需要關注兩個關鍵點,包括通過AI切實解決用戶痛點,以及用戶的數據安全及隱私問題。Counterpoint預測,2027年全球AI手機滲透率約40%,出貨量有望達5.22億部。
在模型側,該行認為模型輕量化初顯成效,手機廠商陸續發布端側模型。一方面科技巨頭如谷歌、Meta(META.US)等紛紛推出輕量化模型,另一方面手機廠商亦通過自研或在現有大模型基礎上優化的方式,研發適配在手機端運行的模型。在硬件側,NPU算力升級,異構計算及內存升級,同時關注電池及散熱。至於在操作系統及應用側,操作系統優化升級,移動端應用日新月異,商業模式有望跑通。
該行維持對相關公司盈利預測不變;考慮到公司AI服務器業務長期向好,上調工業富聯(601138.SH)目標價50.3%至28.5元人民幣。建議關注小米(01810.HK)、比亞迪電子(00285.HK)、舜宇光學科技(02382.HK)、高通(QCOM.US)、英偉達(NVDA.US)及ARM(ARM.US)。
股份|評級|目標價(港元)
小米(01810.HK)|跑贏行業|15.8元
比亞迪電子(00285.HK)|跑贏行業|38.5元
舜宇光學科技(02382.HK)|跑贏行業|81.9元
高通(QCOM.US)|跑贏行業|161.86美元
英偉達(NVDA.US)|跑贏行業|870美元
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