《大行報告》瑞銀降阿里(BABA.US)目標價至106美元 季績符預期
瑞銀發表研報指,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)截至去年12月底止上財季收入按年增長5.1%,經調整EBITA增長1.5%,期內雲端計算業務利潤率提升,有助抵銷阿里對淘天集團及國際數字商業集團(AIDC)的投資,表現符合預期。但隨著用戶消費力向淘寶網轉移,該行預期佣金比率將受拖累,核心CMR表現或跑輸GMV的增長,目前預測未來幾個季度CMR將按年下跌2%至4%。
瑞銀同時對AIDC前景感到中性,指出雖然期內阿里速賣通訂單量按年增長60%,但業務EBITA季度虧損擴大,加上持續對該業務投入,預測2025財年該業務虧損將擴大至130億元人民幣。
瑞銀形容季績符預期,屬喜憂參半,一方面阿里宣布加大回購力度,但預期對核心業務的額外投資將導致盈利前景下行,目前預計2025財年EBITA將下跌4%。瑞銀相信回購及處置非核心資產可繼續釋放價值,但阿里股價料保持區間波動,將港股及美股目標價分別下調至104港元及106美元,維持「買入」評級。
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