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大行評級丨招商證券國際:料阿里巴巴上季收入增速放緩至6.2%,淘天集團增速不及預期
招商證券國際料阿里巴巴12月季度收入增速放緩至6.2%,對比9月季度爲8.5%,招商證券國際解釋,料淘天集團增速不及預期,影響因素包括:1)宏觀逆風;2)廣告和傭金貨幣化率較低的淘寶GMV佔比提升,使得整體貨幣化率承壓;3)公司將更多戰略資源向第三方3P業務傾斜,使得1P業務增速放緩。招商估,淘天集團上季收入僅同比增長1.1%,其中客戶管理(CMR)收入增長0.7%,貢獻約74%的淘天集團收入。 國際數字商業(AIDC)近季增長迅猛,招商估,12月季度分部收入錄得同比增長40%,得益於Ali Express和Trendyol等推動,同時,AIDC快速增長帶動菜鳥業務22%的同比穩健增長。 不過,招商將阿里上季EBITA預測由590億下調到520億元,同比持平,EBITA利潤率預計收窄1.2個百分點,主要受到國際商業、數字傳媒娛樂以及其他業務虧損預期增加所拖累,公司計劃加大對AliExpress Choice的投入,同時Trendyol也處於擴張期。
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