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《大行報告》匯豐研究降阿里(09988.HK)目標價至116元 在艱難環境中進行再投資
匯豐環球研究發表報告指出,儘管中國宏觀經濟仍充滿挑戰,但阿里(09988.HK)(BABA.US)繼續投資國內電商業務並擴張國際業務,在艱難環境中進行再投資,因此該行預期短期內公司毛利將下跌。 按細分市場,淘寶天貓方面,該行認為隨著阿里加大對中小企業的支持力度,淘寶的商品交易總額(GMV)增長領先天貓,GMV組合變化將稀釋變現率(take rate),縮小客戶管理收入(CMR)及GMV的增長差距。加上對使用者和內容的再投資增加,該行預期淘寶天貓分部的EBITA增長將於2025財年的某個季度轉為負值。 國際業務方面,該行預期在全球速賣通(AliExpress)及Trendyol的推動下,增長勢頭應保持強勁,但自去年12月季度增加營銷以來,以及寄售模式貢獻不斷增加下,該分部的虧損或將擴大。雲業務方面,該行料阿里雲業務增長由2024財年的低單位數,恢復至2025財年的高單位數增長。 匯豐環球研究對阿里CMR及集團的利潤前景變得更為保守,將公司2024至2026財年收入預測下調2%至5%,以反映CMR增長放緩及線下超市業務的疲弱,同時對其盈利預測下調5%至12%。對阿里(09988.HK)目標價由128港元下調至116港元,阿里(BABA.US)目標價由131美元降至119美元,評級「買入」。
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